2023 GENERAL ELECTIONS AND THE RISE OF THE OBIDIENT MOVEMENT

 

Prior to the 2023 election, the Labour Party’s victory in major elections was when Dr Olusegun Mimiko became the governor of Ondo State. He served two terms on the party’s platform.

Since the party was established in 2002, the LP had struggled like all others to break the dominance of both the APC and PDP, as they consistently shared the seats in the National Assembly, State House of Assembly, and governorship seats in the 36 states. And the party never had a close shot at the presidency and National Assembly

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No doubt the general elections of 2023 may have come and gone, however, one significant impact that has shaped Nigeria’s electoral experience in 2023 was the OBIDIENT PHENOMENOM that threw shivers into the spine of the two major political parties in Nigeria the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with the outstanding and unprecedented performance of Peter Obi’s inspired Labour party and Obedient Movement.

In a space of 8 months the political landscape was significantly altered, with taking over 6 million votes and winning in 11 states including the FCT Abuja is indeed a disruption and enviable feat of no mean repute, winning Abia State alongside 8 senatorial seats,……………

In the South east for instance Enugu State the Ruling PDP suffered a severe shipwreck by losing the majority of 14 seats in the State legislature having dominated the State for 24 years also Abia State where the party produced the Governor and majority seats at the House of assembly is rather phenomenal.

Factors that aided the Performance of the Labour Party in the 2023 elections

BAD GOVERNANCE BY THE RULING APC: This election was the culmination of the anger of most Nigerians at the ruling APC for the worst economic performance and bad governance the party foisted on the country in 8 years characterized by Muhammadu Buhari's terrible misgovernance. This factor created a gap exploited by Peter Obi’s campaign to restore good governance with his FROM CONSUMPTION TO PRODUCTION mantra which won many applause within and outside the country.

MOBILISATION OF DISGRUNTLED WOMEN AND YOUTH DEMOGRAPHY

The Peter Obi campaign having understudied the OBAMA 2008 Presidential campaign in the US understood the power of WOMEN and youth demography in swinging elections to their favour by exploiting this significant populace in winning more than eleven states in a presidential election.

RELIGION AND ETHNICITY

The Labour Party flagbearer indeed exploited Nigeria’s religious idiosyncrasies by visiting church leaders to sway votes. The religious trump card across the two major regions of Northern Nigeria and Southern Nigeria is a swing factor in elections in Nigeria where the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC caused lots of anger in the southern part of the country which caused a lot of votes swaying in the direction of the Labour party.

The party’s popularity reached a crescendo when Obi emerged as the party’s presidential candidate after other aspirants in the party like Prof Pat Utomi stepped down for him. Soon after, a movement tagged ‘Obidient’ emerged.

Despite the growing popularity of the party and its candidate, both in social media and even offline, coupled with the threat his candidacy increasingly posed to their victory, the dominant parties dismissed his chances at the poll. Some even called him names, like Nollywood actor, while some said the LP was a social media party with no structure.

Confident that the presidential election was between the APC and PDP, the spokesman for the APC presidential campaign council, Festus Keyamo (SAN), said in an interview, “To be honest with you, two parties can easily make the 25 percent in 24 States and that is the APC and the PDP. They have the spread and they have structures everywhere.”

Also, Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State in early February described the Labour Party candidate as a Nollywood actor who couldn’t go anywhere.

He said on a programme, “How can Peter Obi win any election? Peter Obi is doing one percent in Sokoto, Kano, etc. and these are the places the voters are. Peter Obi is a Nollywood actor and that is what he will be. He will not get anywhere. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has support across Nigeria. By the grace of God, we are going to win.”

Prior to the election, the party continued to gain traction, as its membership grew significantly while support for it rose, especially in social media. The Obedient movement soon gave birth to another, ‘ObiDatti Movement’ which was an acronym for Obi and his running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed.

Commenting on the chances of the party, the presidential candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, in an interview with Arise TV said, “I really don’t expect the Labour Party to take as many votes from the PDP as people are suggesting. We could have seen it in the last (governorship) election in Osun State. What is the performance of the Labour Party?

“This is a party that doesn’t have a governor or members of the state House of Assembly, and politics in this country depends on the structures you have at these various levels. So, it is very difficult to expect a miracle to happen simply because Peter Obi is in the Labour Party.

“After all, they were saying through social media, they have more than one million votes in Osun State but how many people came out to vote for the Labour Party? And there again mark you, you are talking about social media, in the North 90 percent of our people are not tuned to social media.”

Obi’s surprise performance

In the run-up to the February 25 presidential and National Assembly elections, it became increasingly difficult for political analysts to predict who among the APC, PDP, and LP candidates would win the election. This was because the support for each of them had swelled, especially that of Obi whom they said had no structure.

Although Peter Obi did not win the presidential election as declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission, his performance, nationally and victory in places traditionally ‘owned’ by the two dominant parties, shocked many people at home and abroad.

While the winner, Tinubu of the APC, scored 8,794,726 votes, Atiku came second with 6,984,520 votes while Obi came third with 6,101,533 votes.

One interesting dimension was the fact that Tinubu and Atiku won 12 states each, while Obi won 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Perhaps, one of the shocking outcomes of the election was Obi winning Lagos State, defeating APC’s Tinubu’s. Since 1999, Tinubu, a former governor of the state, has remained the godfather of Lagos politics and not even the main opposition party in the state, PDP, could defeat it in national, state, or local government elections.

Many people described the LP’s victory in Lagos as phenomenal because the state has been governed by the APC – and the Alliance for Democracy, Action Congress, and the Action Congress of Nigeria that joined others to form the APC in 2013 – since 1999.

The LP also floored Keyamo at his polling unit in Delta State. Beyond the South, the party also made some inroads into the North. In the presidential election, the party won seven LGAs in Kaduna State; and 23 LGAs in Benue State; among others.

Similarly, the LP candidate floored the two dominant parties at the nation’s capital, Abuja when he polled 281,717, while Tinubu scored 90,902 and Atiku 74,199 votes. He also won in all the 10 polling units at the presidential villa.

In Adamawa State, Atiku’s stronghold, Obi floored him at PU35, Karewa, Yola North LGA with a difference of 38 votes.

Also, the LP presidential candidate won in Delta State, the stronghold of the PDP where its vice-presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa, is the incumbent governor. The LP won with 341,866 votes against the PDP’s 161,600 and the APC’s 90,183 votes.

In the same vein, he won in Cross River State – a state that has an APC member, Ben Ayade, as the incumbent governor.

Although the Anambra State Governor, Prof Charles Soludo, had said Obi could not win the election, the LP candidate defeated his party, the All Progressives Grand Alliance as well as APC and PDP in the state. The LP also won the polling unit in the state Government House as well as the National Assembly seats.

LP’s NASS performance

The Labour Party also sacked some political heavyweights in the Senate and House of Representatives. In all, the party would move from having one member in the Senate to eight members, while in the House of Representatives, the number has also risen to 22.

For example, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State lost his senatorial bid to represent Enugu North Senatorial District in the National Assembly to the Labour Party candidate, Okechukwu Ezea. Ugwuanyi scored 46,948 while Ezea polled 104,948 votes.

In Abia State, the PDP lost two House of Representative seats to the Labour Party while the LP senatorial candidate for Abia Central zone, Darlington Nwokocha, defeated the APC and PDP candidate.

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The LP candidate for FCT Senatorial, Ireti Kingibe, also sacked the current senator, Philip Aduda, of the PDP, a three-time senator. Kingibe scored 202,175 votes while Aduda scored 100,544 votes. Another LP candidate, Obika Chinedu, won his bid for FCT House of Representatives also defeating PDP candidate, Micah Jiba.

Similarly, in Edo State, LP’s Neda Imasuen won the Edo South Senatorial District seat beating his closest rival from the PDP, Matthew Iduoriyekemwen, with a margin of 105,501 votes.

Also, LP’s Darlington Nwokocha scored 92,116 to defeat a former National Organising Secretary of the PDP, Augustine Akobundu, who polled 41,477 for the Abia Central Senatorial District seat.

For Amuwo-Odofin Constituency in Lagos State, LP’s George Adegeye emerged victorious with 46,702 votes defeating his closest rival in the APC, Lanre Sanusi, who polled 12,946 votes while the incumbent, Oghene Ego, of the PDP had 5,752 votes.

Also in Lagos State, the candidate of the LP, Thaddeus Attah, defeated the incumbent, Babajide Obanikoro, and popular musician, Olubankole Wellington, known as Banky W to win the Eti Osa federal constituency.

In the same vein, the LP candidate for the Ohaozara/Onicha/Ivo federal constituency of Ebonyi, Nkemkanma Kama, defeated the incumbent and PDP candidate, Livinus Makwe.

In Kaduna State, the Labour Party won the Kaura federal constituency and Chikun/Kajuru federal constituency, defeating the incumbents.

Political analysts, lawyers react

Reacting to the disruption caused by the LP, a political analyst and professor of political science at the Ekiti State University, Akindele Adetoye, stated that the election witnessed a paradigm that would change the political sphere of the country.

He said the emergence of the LP as a third force had further strengthened the nation’s democracy, adding that more Nigerians, especially the youths, were more politically educated and alert to governance than before.

He stated, “I think there is a kind of paradigm shift in this election from what we used to have. We can now see a situation where certain big political parties lost what used to be their strong base. I think this is so perhaps because of what I called the third force which is the Labour Party.

“Obi’s emergence has changed the political sphere of the nation and the performance of the government will also improve going forward. In Lagos, ordinarily you would have thought that APC would have cleared the votes but the LP came out with force and surprised them”.

Speaking on why the LP candidate may have won Lagos, Adetoye cited the #EndSARS protest, the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, people’s annoyance with the APC and PDP’s performance, the large population of Igbo in the state as well as individual interests.

“Lagos State used to be the base of APC and APC, you can see Tinubu running neck to neck with Obi. We have now seen that the Lagos electorate is very sophisticated; they can decide on who to vote for and who not to vote for.

“For me, what has happened in this election is not because Obi is good or the Labour Party is good, I think this is an expression of frustration and anger about the APC and PDP. So there are so many factors why people voted for Obi.”

He argued that it was not because many voters knew Obi so much but that people desired a change of governance, adding that Obi secured the votes he did in the North because of his running mate.

He added, “Generally speaking, the Labour Party actually took the shine off PDP because if Obi was still in PDP, I think the vote that went to Obi would have been for PDP if they had worked together and it would have been very difficult for the APC and other parties to win them.

“This contest will open the eyes of politicians not to take the masses for granted. If you are voted for and you don’t perform, there are other people and parties that the electorate can vote for. With this, I think democracy is gaining more strength and this is a very good development.

“With the emergence of the Labour Party, I think we now have a third force that will compete with the PDP and APC and this will be very interesting.”

Also, the Chairman of the Nigerian Bar Association Section on Public Interest and Development Law, NBA-SPIDEL, Monday Ubani, said Nigeria would never be the same again, politically, with the development.

He noted that the presidential election was evidence that citizens were beginning to develop their political consciousness which would aid the development of the country.

He added, “Nigeria has moved forward because from what we have seen, this is not about tribal or religious sentiment. You can see it, Obi and the LP came in for the first time as a third force and now sacked even the major candidates and parties despite many saying they don’t have structure.

“It shows that people are now getting more enlightened, more politically educated, and aware of what is happening in the nation’s polity. I pray people in the North also become more enlightened. Even their leaders are proud to say their people are not in social media meaning they are less educated. But again you can see that the LP got some votes there, so gradually, they are becoming enlightened to change the narratives.

He said the votes of the masses were the weapon to deal with the politicians and they should not lose sight of it.

He added, “This is a country where poor people cannot dream of getting close to anything in life because of our political heavyweights who have held the country hostage. This is what Nigerians, especially the youth, were determined to do with the Obidient movement.

On his part, a political analyst and former vice president of the Nigerian Political Science Association, Professor Kamilu Fage, said the youth made their mark in the election with the adoption of the Labour Party.

He said if they persisted, the nation would be liberated and governance would translate into development.

He added, “The election presents some surprises. The big shots lost so many seats. Another thing is the emergence of the Labour Party which came with a lot of surprises. Though the LP had been on the ground for a long time, the defection of Obi to the party and the resolve of youths to change the country contributed to a large extent to the election.

“As revealed, the youth had the largest numbers in terms of registration for the election which is why we could witness the show that played out during the poll. And I must tell you they made their mark.

“The use of social media was very effective in driving home their agenda because a large number of them were fully engaged in social media. If this trend continues, I think it’s going to be great for our democracy. The powerful voting bloc will remain politically conscious and actively participate not only in voting but also contesting for certain posts in terms of having the younger ones in governance.”

He expressed confidence that if the youths could take advantage of their large numbers, they would change the pattern of politics in the country.